What Does the SP500 vs Nasdaq Futures Spread Tell Us?

Subscriber Update Feb4 2026

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Ok everyone, this is going to be a quick one then onto the subscriber data. Ok so many long time readers know that we watch the SP500 vs Nasdaq futures spread and this is a proxy “risk on” metric for us. Well for the greater part of the last 4 months and after touching the long term base line, this spread has now broken our bull/bear pivot:

Subscribers will see in our CTA Markets Sentiment, that Magnelibra proprietary attributes are now showing a long bias in the SP500 and a short bias in the Nasdaq. We believe there is a lot of room for this one to go and we think institutions have already begun this rotation. We’ve seen all the comments about private credit blowing up and money flows starting to wane causing a lot of leverage to get exposed. When leverage gets exposed, you then have forced selling. So on a much larger time frame we believe the concentration of wealth that is so tightly wound up in just a few names are going to be looking for diversification.

We are starting to see some folks hide in Berkshire again:

Whether or not this is a short term blip or the start of a larger rotation (our viewpoint) the message seems clear, there is derisking going on and we can also see evidence in the crypto market where Bitcoin continues to slide:

There wasn’t much of a take on Alphabet which came out today as the run in the stock has been impressive, they did beat estimates, but we believe like all the others, this Ai spending is going to be a problem. The stock didn’t sustain the brief up move after the release and is now currently down $1.33. As far as tomorrow, we have Amazon reporting after the close, let’s look at our options analysis:

Options are indicating a chunk 8% move here and considering the chart structure is below our pivot we like the Put spreads for a decent 2 to 1 payoff.

Here are a couple of other charts of interest, the QQQs, the SP500 and Nasdaq futures, all painting the same picture!

Alright that is it for today, onto the subscriber only section!

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