Yen? Overdone?
Settlements for Tuesday March 29th
When we took a peak at the Yen we couldn’t help but look back historically on the chart to see how the recent selloff compared to the prior ones. What we found is that the current levels have been significantly supported in the past. We can only surmise that foreign investors appetite for Japanese equities, does depend on the currency conversion at least in some part and that a weaker yen could lead to weaker demand for Japanese equities. In the past this current level around the 80.00 mark in futures 125 in the cash does seem like Yen buyers may step up here and support it like they have done so in the past, 2007, 2015, 2022…which may be good for Japanese equities as well:
Speaking of equities, stateside the markets have seen sharp rallies off of major decadal supports from our purview and readers here know how big the 13000 level was in the Nasdaq, well that’s some 2000 points or so ago or a whopping 15% plus advance:
This is not a return to a bull market from our perspective but rather a fundamental move off of some very large technical levels. The Nasdaq has been the safe haven crowd trade but this rally is running into some key inflection points as well, notably the 0.618 at 15178 and higher up the reversal area at 15786 which should provide an ample longer term level to hedge any longs.
BofA recently noted the veracity of this latest equity move in these charts, pretty stunning moves all things considered:
We did take a peak at the FAANGMT composite as well for any clues and yep, seems as if a few are hitting the exits from this recent rally:
Looking at the SP500 4663 is key and we suspect sellers first test there:
We also took a look at Bitcoin, technically we don’t see much in the way for the rise up to channel resistance at $55200 however if equities do indeed move lower, they will most likely drag this one down as well as more and more are crowding into this asset class and HFT is using correlation methods to drive pricing. As many readers know, we view this as a technology not a security:
Crypto Settles for March 29th 2022:
All in all we continue to see the Federal Reserve well behind the bond market curve as yields continue to compress to inversion as shown here in yesterdays moves with the belly faring quite well, but the 2s higher in yield on the day:
Here are the rest of the settles for the markets we follow:
Good luck today, we begin technically in equity land with a defensive posture, but we also know all the MSMedia clamoring for market tops due to bond curve inversion is overplayed and flat out historically wrong. This takes time to develop and imminent collapse is a widow maker trade, so don’t fall for it. Stick to principles, stick to a longer term plan and keep sight of your horizon.
Till next time…
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