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Magnelibra Trading & Research
Yields Falling and FRB Stuck

Yields Falling and FRB Stuck

Silver shines

Mike Agne's avatar
Mike Agne
Apr 04, 2023
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Magnelibra Trading & Research
Magnelibra Trading & Research
Yields Falling and FRB Stuck
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It seems that today’s JOLTs survey showed a continued deterioration in the US job market as the BLS reports nearly 1.3 million jobs have been vaporized from their survey over the last 2 months. We touched on this about a month ago, where we questioned the validity of the nearly 11 million job openings. We don’t believe this number for one second, and its fakery is driven by sites like Zip Recruiter, Indeed, LinkedIn etc. all because of mandates via certain industries, to pretend that there are job openings where there are none. Remember this JOLTs is just a survey, a guess, an extrapolation and if the JOLTs does indeed fall back to reality, say below 8 million, guess what that does to the unemployment rate??? You guessed it, it will move sharply higher, now couple this with the fact that the economy is turning and if layoffs accelerate, that NFP report that this Administration has been fudging the whole time, and which the FRB uses as an excuse to keep rates high, when its all said and done, we suspect a -500k NFP in the next 6 months! Who honestly believed this 12 million number? Even during the 2003 to 2008 housing boom we stayed flat around 4 million, now some how magic 3x growth, seriously:

Anyway, the bond market is agreeing with this thesis and as we have said time and time again, it is the bond market that cannot rely on fudging numbers, but rather must hedge duration risk constantly or else risk insolvency (without the SVB implicit guarantee by the US govt!)

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