Trump Waffles For Now Stocks Pump and SP500 3rd Biggest Gain Ever

April 9th Subscriber Data Trackers and investing time/value lesson

What a day for the markets, after a tumultuous overnight session undoubtedly seeing massive margin calls out of Asia, one Trump move in the mid NY session and voila, its boom times once again! Trump first posted this most timely tidbit at 9:37am yesterday:

Then at 1:18pm he announces the 90 day pause:

So, many on social media are saying, Trump told us to buy and then he delivered…

Well the market may have rebounded in steadfast fashion, but nothing materially has changed, the markets just proved how truly leveraged they are by the veracity and scope of their moves both up and down.

People cheer this kind of stuff, but what it really exposes is the general fragility of the overall system as well as how much leverage is embedded as to account for the fuel to drive such moves.

Now leverage is not a new thing, this is the mechanism that allows investors to take $1 and trade it likes its $3, $5, $10 depending upon your risk profile. So don’t think that this is a new phenomenon, it is not. The only thing that is truly different are the “nominal” values which are ever increasing. One thing people need to understand is that increasing nominal prices have a flip side, its called decreasing “actual” value of your unit of account, in this case US Dollars for domestic US consumers. So while everyone wants to cheer on the monetarists at the Federal Reserve for keeping up the pretenses of sound money, the basic US consumer knows all to well as to how unsound the value of its labor has become.

So we want our readers to keep this all in context and realize that no matter what the stock market does on any given day, the overall point in the cycle doesn’t change. So despite Trumps Truth Social post, lighting a fire under prices, yesterday, nothing fundamentally has changed. We are still way over leveraged, global trade will still be rebalanced, the US will still move into a recession, US jobs most likely will begin to decrease and the “basis” trade that was so scary a day ago, is still here!

Here is the data on the SP move with 13 out of the 15 moves coming within the last 17 years, 1 move from 2002 and of course the 1987 rebound all in the QE plunge protection era:

Source: Charlie Bilello on X

Here is the SP500 (SPX) move off of the Trump now famous “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT,” post from his Truth Social account and the 90 day pause post:

So the SP500 settled the day +9.5% massive, move however the Nasdaq as shown here in the futures was up 11.9%:

Both the fib 38.2% retrace support and Weekly buy area support are now in the money on our chart and the first weekly sell area was hit at 18962 area. Expect resistance here and sellers to reemerge off of yesterday’s move as time has a way of absorbing new information and disbursing risk more broadly across the trading spectrum. What we mean is that the initial reaction is purely headline based and reactionary, then time itself allows for a more filtered responses.

We also saw the US Govt 10y blow up in yield last night on the heels of forced Asian selling to raise cash hitting a high at 4.513% however by the close the 10s were once again below our resistance threshold at 4.37%. You guys know we have this as our trend resistance area and a close below this indicates lower yield trend is still intact:

We had CPI numbers this morning and they came in lowered than expected as CPI fell 0.1% expecting a +0.1% so that is welcomed news for the FOMC which moves YoY CPI to +2.4%. An area we are sure the FOMC is very, very comfortable with. However this doesn’t mean they will cut rates in May, in fact if they are indeed at odds with the administration, the odds of a cut barring further large equity declines, are minimal for a May cut.

Both Crude and Silver bounced nicely and should be expected honestly given the massive moves lower there, our target was almost reached off the $72 area down to $54 in just a few days, but $54 is a good overall long term support area and expect proper support around that area. $66 becomes the target resell area for Crude:

Silver went from $35 to $29 in just a few days and seems to have bottomed for now at our $29.65 support and first buy area. A settle below there on the daily once again would hurt the silver bull odds of a sustained recovery, expect sellers from $32.50/33 area:

Ok considering the geopolitical posturing, the markets have bought themselves some time, how much, we aren’t sure, but the numbers will always tell us, so when we look at the SP500 futures as our equity proxy our levels are shown:

The entire area from 4850 to 5721 becomes our overall range for now. You need to tighten up your time frames from there and follow support and resistance as time moves on. As we noted earlier, nothing structural has changed and we will suspect ongoing geopolitical posturing to move the markets back lower and then receive bouts of market moving information for V style rebound pumps.

All we can tell you is that the writing is on the wall to remove risk and to not step in and buy large chunks and think your gaining value, you are not, no matter what your time frame is. You need to have a plan moving forward and you need to understand that all of the markets gains are UNREALIZED if you do not sell.

Don’t let the media tell you as a long term investor you can’t REALIZE profits. Its an absurdity, there are percentage based levels where you should buy and where you should sell, the buy and hold and never do anything days are long gone, the world is far to sophisticated and accessible for that! You owe it to yourself to learn, become more adaptable and accountable for your portfolio, for your self learning and that is where we hope we are making a difference.

Yeah, but Magnelibra, we are in it for the next 20 years or longer, yea that’s great, but timing is everything. Here we will demonstrate through over time, how your overall starting point is more important than your “in it for the long haul” type of mentality:

Here you can see if you started buying in 1961, by 1970 your gain would be zero:

Here you can see if you started buying in 1966, by 1975 your gain would be zero:

Here you can see if you started buying in 1972, by 1982 your gain would be zero:

Here you can see if you started buying in 1997, by 2003 your gain would be zero and even out to 2009 it would still be zero, so a lost 12 years!

Here you can see if you started buying in 2007, by 2013 your gain would be zero:

So fast forward to todays investment cohort, no matter what age you are the prospects for a lost 6 years or 10 years is very real. This is what the great value investors look at, this is how they parse investments, they focus on VALUE and TIME, too many novice and even professionals focus on being what we call LAZY. Thinking the markets always rise over time, well as we have just demonstrated, the real VALUE players focus upon their ENTRIES and EXITS at a given point and time and then weigh their risks appropriately! So here is what they investment cohort should be looking at today:

The big question is does the SP get to 8500 before it gets to 3500 or less? Calculate your odds best upon viable information at hand and see what you come up with, see if it makes sense to be buying today or monetizing today?

One thing is clear to us, nothing drives nominal asset prices more than a money printing central bank and to prove it, here is the annualized asset base growth of the FOMC, over the last 27 years its 9.79%, almost 2% more than the annualized growth of the SP500 in fact, big question we have is where would the SP500 be if the FOMC slowed their annualized growth to say 5%??? This is something so many do not understand as a major possibility!

Ok that is it for now, we have all the MTR Subscriber data and trackers up next, we urge you to become a full subscriber and truly break through that barrier of understanding in regards to our global financial system.

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