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Payroll Miss, Bull Steepener, And Equity Breakout Confirmed
July NFP -23K vs +83K estimate. May and June revised down 103K combined. 30Y at June 2007 levels. FMTP flipped from 3 shorts to 8 longs. The systematic…
Aug 9
•
Mike Agne
6
The Valuation Illusion: What a Debased Dollar Hides
Nasdaq at 24x nominal, 230x once you deflate earnings by Fed balance-sheet growth. Plus Treasuries at an inflection, MSTR below mNAV 1.0, and the…
Jul 26
•
Mike Agne
5
1
Earnings Preview · Tesla and Alphabet
Options Break-Even Analysis
Jul 22
•
Mike Agne
5
The Forced Bond Seller Has a Name
Japan sends its pension capital home and the 30-year yields more than it did at the 2023 peak with a Fed funds rate a full point lower.
Jul 13
•
Mike Agne
6
June NFP Miss Unmasks the Participation Rate Trap -Warsh, BOJ, and the Fiscal Dominance Test
507,000 Workers Left the Workforce in June as the BLS Headlined a Drop in Unemployment.
Jul 6
•
Mike Agne
2
Why We Think the Fed Ends Up Cutting, Not Hiking, Inside Six Months
Strategy Inc is running out of room to wait and see who is right.
Jun 28
•
Mike Agne
9
1
The Negative Convexity We Flagged Is Now a Cash Flow Problem
We walk through the mechanism we flagged months ago, now showing up in the filings.
Jun 25
•
Mike Agne
5
1
1
Export Controls Just Created Their Own Workaround
Sakana AI's new Fugu model openly targets the gap left by Anthropic's Mythos export control suspension. We connect that story to BofA's hawkish rate…
Jun 23
•
Mike Agne
2
King Elon, a $2 Trillion Crown, and a Dollar Nobody Wants to Talk About
SpaceX goes public. Markets chase the headline. The real story is what it costs in a currency the Fed is printing at $6 billion a week.
Jun 14
•
Mike Agne
4
1
Bonds Rally, Tech Slips, Gold Breaks
The curve bull-flattened into CPI, the Nasdaq short delivered, and gold cracked through 4,475.
Jun 10
•
Mike Agne
1
The Zero Sum Game
What the non-farm payrolls print did not cause, and what the SpaceX IPO is doing to the tape.
Jun 8
•
Mike Agne
5
The Skew Already Told You
How 25 years in fixed income derivatives positioned Magnelibra to read Broadcom's options market before the print — and what Bitcoin's balance sheet is…
Jun 5
•
Mike Agne
6
1
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